The Key Insights:
Real Madrid is set to face Atalanta at the National Stadium in Warsaw, Poland, on Wednesday night, aiming to claim their sixth UEFA Super Cup title. With five Super Cup victories already under their belt, they are currently tied with Barcelona and Milan. However, a win this week would make them the team with the most UEFA Super Cup titles, surpassing both rivals.
The Opta supercomputer forecasts that Real Madrid has a 59.7% chance of winning the 2024 UEFA Super Cup within regular time. If successful, they will not only secure their sixth title but also set a new record in the competition.
Carlo Ancelotti’s team secured their place in this match by winning the 2023-24 UEFA Champions League, defeating Borussia Dortmund 2-0 at Wembley, with goals from Dani Carvajal and Vinícius Júnior in the second half. This victory marked Ancelotti’s 13th trophy as head coach of Madrid. A win in the upcoming Super Cup would bring his total to 14, tying him with Miguel Muñoz for the most titles in the club’s history. Additionally, Ancelotti could surpass Pep Guardiola by becoming the coach with the most UEFA Super Cup victories, with five titles.
Kylian Mbappé, who has been prolific in finals, scoring eight goals in his last 11 appearances for both club and country, will be one of the players to watch in this crucial match.
Real Madrid enter this match in outstanding form, having concluded the 2023-24 season on a high note. They have remained unbeaten in their last 26 games across all competitions (W17 D9), marking their best streak since the 40-game unbeaten run under Zinedine Zidane in 2017. Their last defeat was back in January 2024 against Atlético Madrid in the Copa del Rey (4-2). The team has further bolstered their squad this summer by signing French superstar Kylian Mbappé.
Mbappé might make his official debut for the Spanish giants in this game. The last player to score on his Real Madrid debut was Jude Bellingham, who found the net against Athletic Club in La Liga in August 2023. Mbappé is known for rising to the occasion, having scored eight goals in his last 11 finals for both club and country, including six in his most recent five: one in the 2021 Coupe de France, one in the 2021 UEFA Nations League, three in the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and one in the 2021 Trophée des Champions.
Another player who thrives in high-pressure situations is Brazilian forward Vinícius Jr. He has contributed to 10 goals in the 10 finals he has participated in for Real Madrid (seven goals and three assists). Vinícius scored in both of his last two finals, netting a hat-trick against Barcelona in the 2024 Spanish Super Cup and adding a goal in the UCL final against Borussia Dortmund last season.
Atalanta, representing Serie A, will compete in the UEFA Super Cup for the first time after winning the 2023-24 UEFA Europa League. They secured the title with a commanding 3-0 victory over Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen in the final this past May, claiming their first major European trophy. Nigerian forward Ademola Lookman played a starring role, scoring a hat-trick—the sixth to be recorded in a major UEFA final.
Gian Piero Gasperini, Atalanta's coach, became the fourth-oldest manager to claim a major European trophy at the age of 66 years and 117 days. This accomplishment places him behind only Raymond Goethals (71 years, 231 days; 1993 UEFA Champions League), Jupp Heynckes (68 years, 16 days; 2013 UEFA Champions League), and Alex Ferguson (66 years, 142 days; 2008 UEFA Champions League). This Europa League victory marked Atalanta's first successful final under Gasperini’s leadership, following three previous losses in the Coppa Italia finals with him at the helm.
This summer, Atalanta made significant investments in their forward line, securing Charles De Ketelaere from Milan on a permanent deal after his impressive 14-goal loan spell last season, and bringing in Mateo Retegui from Genoa. The combined cost of these transfers is reported to be €56 million (£48 million). With the addition of these players, alongside Lookman, Atalanta could present a real challenge to Real Madrid in this upcoming match.
Read More: Today's Other Match Sedule
Win Prediction:
According to predictions by the Opta supercomputer, Real Madrid is the frontrunner to win the 2024 UEFA Super Cup, with a 59.7% chance of securing victory within the regular 90 minutes in pre-match simulations.
In 19.1% of the 10,000 simulations run before the match, the 2023-24 Europa League champions, Atalanta, managed to pull off an upset against Los Blancos. Meanwhile, 21.2% of the simulations indicated that the match would end in a draw, leading to a penalty shootout.
Statistics:
Head-to-Head Comparison: Real Madrid vs Atalanta:
This will be only the third meeting between Real Madrid and Atalanta in a competitive match. Their previous encounters occurred in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 during the 2020-21 season.
Real Madrid emerged victorious in both legs of that tie. In the first leg, Ferland Mendy secured a 1-0 win for Madrid in Bergamo, capitalizing after Remo Freuler received a red card just 17 minutes into the game. The second leg saw Madrid winning 3-1 at their temporary venue, the Alfredo Di Stéfano Stadium. That season, Madrid advanced to the semi-finals but were eventually eliminated by Chelsea, who went on to win the tournament.
As a side note, the last time a Spanish club faced an Italian team in the UEFA Super Cup was in 2010, where Atlético Madrid defeated Internazionale 2-0 in Monaco.
5 Predictions for the Super Cup: Real Madrid vs Atalanta:
1. Kylian Mbappe's Anticipated Real Madrid Debut
Kylian Mbappe's arrival at Real Madrid has generated immense excitement, especially after his highly anticipated unveiling at the Santiago Bernabeu. The ceremony, a longstanding tradition at the iconic stadium, was met with enthusiasm from both Real Madrid supporters and football fans globally. Given the long wait for his transfer to the club, there's understandable eagerness for Mbappe's first appearance in a Real Madrid jersey.
Due to his involvement in EURO 2024 with the French national team, Mbappe wasn't featured in Real Madrid's pre-season matches, as he, along with other teammates, was granted an extended holiday. This absence, however, might set the stage for his competitive debut in a significant match like the UEFA Super Cup.
Real Madrid signed Mbappe with high-stakes games in mind, and the UEFA Super Cup provides the perfect occasion for his debut. Despite his youth, Mbappe has ample experience in major fixtures, making it an ideal opportunity for him to shine in his first match for Los Blancos.
2. Jude Bellingham's Likely Bench Role
Mbappe's inclusion in the squad could mean that one of the "big four" – Mbappe, Rodrygo, Vinicius, or Bellingham – might have to start on the bench. The decision lies in the hands of Carlo Ancelotti, who will likely consider the players' fitness levels.
Jude Bellingham, having played in the EURO 2024 final with England, may be the least physically prepared of the group. England's path to the final involved several grueling matches, with Bellingham playing a pivotal role, leading to his need for more recovery time than his teammates.
During the build-up to the UEFA Super Cup, Bellingham was seen training with the "non-starting XI," hinting that he might begin the match as a substitute. Despite this, Bellingham's impact last season, where he was Real Madrid's top scorer in La Liga, suggests he will still play a role. Resting him could be strategic, but bringing him off the bench appears to be the most prudent approach.
3. Luka Modric to Assume Toni Kroos' Role
With Toni Kroos absent from a major match for the first time in many years, Real Madrid must find someone to fill his considerable shoes. Fortunately for Carlo Ancelotti, Luka Modric is more than capable of stepping into the role.
Throughout pre-season, Modric operated in a deeper midfield position, effectively replicating the role Kroos had perfected during his illustrious tenure at Real Madrid. Acting as part of a double pivot, Modric impressed, leading Ancelotti to suggest this could be his new role for the upcoming season.
If Ancelotti intends to continue using Modric in this capacity, the UEFA Super Cup would be the perfect stage to initiate this transition. Modric's wealth of experience in high-pressure games makes him the ideal candidate to take on this responsibility.
4. Carlo Ancelotti's Pursuit of a UEFA Super Cup Record
Carlo Ancelotti's history in the UEFA Super Cup is unparalleled. The Italian coach has claimed the trophy four times, a record he currently shares with Pep Guardiola. A victory in this match would see Ancelotti set a new benchmark, becoming the most successful coach in UEFA Super Cup history with five titles.
This potential achievement carries even more significance considering that two of Ancelotti's previous Super Cup victories were with AC Milan. Winning another with Real Madrid would not only establish a new record but also increase his tally with his cherished club, surpassing even his accomplishments with Milan.
5. Real Madrid's Chance to Make UEFA Super Cup History
While Ancelotti is on the brink of a personal milestone, Real Madrid as a club is also poised to make history. The team has already won five UEFA Super Cups, a record they currently share with FC Barcelona and AC Milan. However, they now have the opportunity to set themselves apart.
A win in the upcoming match would see Real Madrid claim their sixth UEFA Super Cup, cementing their status as the most successful club in the competition's history. This would add another chapter to Real Madrid's legacy of setting new standards in football and reinforce their position as the world's premier football club.
Recent Match Result History:
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